[Reprint] From Energy Saving to Energy Making… China Building Photovoltaic | Current Situation or Future

　　Abstract:The utilization of solar photovoltaic in China is mainly ground photovoltaic power station and distributed photovoltaic. The share of ground power station reaches 70%, which is mainly distributed in the northwest region with rich solar energy resources. Distributed photovoltaic is mainly distributed in the regions with developed economy and large energy demand in the Middle East, which is the main development trend of photovoltaic in the future. This paper analyzes the current situation of distributed utilization of building photovoltaic in China and explores its future development trend.
　　
　　Key words:ground photovoltaic power station; distributed photovoltaic; building integrated photovoltaic
 

In modern society, people's pursuit of a comfortable building environment is getting higher and higher, which leads to the increasing energy consumption of building heating and air conditioning. In developed countries, building energy consumption has accounted for 30%-40% of the country's total energy consumption, which has formed a certain restrictive effect on economic development. Energy conservation and emission reduction, green development, and development and utilization of various renewable energy have become the development of countries around the world. strategy.
　　
Solar energy is a kind of renewable energy, which has the characteristics of clean, pollution-free and renewable, so it has become the best energy choice known to human beings. Since the 1950 s, three scientists from Bell Laboratories in the United States successfully developed monocrystalline silicon cells, photovoltaic cell technology has been continuously improved and developed, and has now formed a complete and mature technology. With the implementation of the global sustainable development strategy, the technology has been strongly supported by many governments and widely used in the world. Especially in the twenty-first century, the photovoltaic industry to make the world marvel at the speed of development.
　　
Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) is a photovoltaic power generation system that is designed, constructed and installed at the same time as the new building and forms a perfect combination with the building. It is an indispensable part of the building. It not only plays the function of building materials (such as wind shielding, rain shielding, heat insulation, etc.), but also has the function of power generation, making the building a green building. This is different from the solar photovoltaic power generation system (BAPV) attached to the building. As a part of the external structure of the building, the battery of BIPV has both the power generation function and the function of building materials. BAPV is the application form of solar photovoltaic system attached to the building. The actual project is mainly roof photovoltaic power station. The objects of statistical analysis in this study include BIPV and BAPV.

　　1. Current situation of photovoltaic building integration industry
　　
1.1. Industry development status


　　
Since 2015, China's PV module shipments and new and cumulative PV installed capacity continue to maintain the first position in the world. By the end of 2019, cumulative grid-connected capacity reached 204 GW, up 17.3 percent year-on-year; full-year PV power generation 224.3 billion kWh, up 26.3 percent year-on-year [1]. Data obtained from the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of photovoltaics over the years is shown in Table 1:

In the "distributed photovoltaic" application of the Energy Bureau's statistics, by the end of 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics was 204 GW, including 141.67GW centralized power stations and 62.63GW distributed power stations. It is estimated that 50% of "distributed PV" is installed in buildings, that is, about 6GW of building PV systems in 2019 and about 30GW of building PV systems in 2019.
　　
　　1.2. Application cost analysis.
　　
In the past 10 years, the price of photovoltaic modules and traditional photovoltaic systems has been reduced by nearly 80%, and the standard photovoltaic modules have even dropped to 1.5 yuan/watt, less than 300 yuan/m2. This increases the possibility of integrating photovoltaic modules into other products (such as building components), and the cost of photovoltaic power has achieved full user-side parity, revealing the huge technical and economic potential of combining photovoltaic energy with buildings.
　　
Most of the potential of photovoltaic building integration has not been utilized, mainly because standardized products can not meet various building performance requirements, and the limitations of equipment or technology can not provide architects with greater design freedom for innovative photovoltaic building integration products, such as color, sensory, size, light transmittance, etc. Therefore, most of the design of photovoltaic building integrated systems requires secondary processing from "photovoltaic modules" to "photovoltaic components". The customization of non-standard products greatly increases the cost of system use. Therefore, further breakthroughs are needed in this field in the future. Technological innovation, reduction of secondary processing costs, product standardization, and strengthening of industrial chain integration and innovation.
　　
　　2. Building photovoltaic system development potential analysis

How many building enclosures can be used to install photovoltaic systems is the basic data analyzed in this paper, and this paper intends to analyze the building resource conditions of the provinces from the estimated proportion of building area, so as to analyze the installed capacity of building photovoltaic systems.
　　
In 2016, the country's total construction area reached 63.487 billion square meters, of which public construction area was about 11.506 billion square meters, accounting for 18.12 percent; urban residential construction area was 27.864 billion square meters, accounting for 43.89 percent; rural residential construction area was 24.117 billion square meters, accounting for 37.99 percent [9]. Assuming that the building roof area accounts for 15% of the building area on average, the south facade area also accounts for 15% of the building area, the roof can be installed photovoltaic ratio coefficient of 20%, the south wall can be installed photovoltaic ratio coefficient of 20%. As of 2016, the available south wall and roof area is 19.046 billion square meters. According to the calculation of 20% of the available area for installing photovoltaic systems, the building area that can be installed photovoltaic is about 3.8 billion square meters. According to the calculation of 120W/m2 installed on the roof and 80W/m2 photovoltaic system installed on the south wall, the maximum installed photovoltaic capacity of buildings can reach 380GW in 2016, and the development space of photovoltaic building integration is huge.
　　
　　3. Long-term forecast of building photovoltaic system development
　　
It is known that by 2016, the maximum installed capacity of China's building photovoltaic system will be used as the base for data analysis, and the development of building photovoltaic system in the future 2025-2050 is predicted by comprehensively considering the incremental area, reduced area, solar energy resources (w1), economic intensity (w2), energy consumption intensity (w3) and policy intensity (w4) of each province.
　　
The development potential of building photovoltaic can not be evaluated simply by a certain data, and the development potential is closely related to meteorological resources, economic development, building energy consumption intensity, policy support and so on. Based on various influencing factors, the maximum installed capacity of building photovoltaic system in XX = M * w1 * w2 * w3 * w4
　　
(1) Maximum development potential (M)
Take the south wall and roof PV installable amount as the maximum development potential of the area (M);
　　
(2) Solar energy resources (w1)
Since there may be several meteorological resource areas in each province, the coefficient is taken as the meteorological resource calculation coefficient of the city where the provincial capital is located. The meteorological resource coefficient (w1) takes a value of 0.2~1. The annual radiation of the best type of area is 1855-2333kWh, the resource coefficient is 1, and the annual radiation of the worst type of area is 928-1163kWh, the coefficient is 0.2.
　　
(3) Economic intensity (w2)
The value of economic intensity (w2) is 0.85~1, the highest per capita GDP is Beijing 118198 yuan/year, the coefficient is 1, the lowest is Gansu 27463 yuan/year, the coefficient is 0.85.
　　
(4) building energy consumption intensity (w3)
the building energy consumption intensity has a great relationship with the climate region, economic development degree and leading industry. the value of building energy consumption intensity coefficient (w3) is 0.8~1. the highest building energy consumption per unit area is beijing 33kgce/m2.a with coefficient of 1, and the lowest is jiangxi, guangxi and yunnan 5kgce/m2.a with coefficient of 0.83.
The values of the coefficients of solar energy resources (w1), economic intensity (w2) and building energy intensity (w3) are shown in Table 2.
　　
(5) Policy Strength (w4)
The government policy strength coefficient (w4) takes a value of 0~1, and the government strengthens the support for photovoltaic building integration year by year. The coefficient value increases in a cycle of five years, and the policy strength reaches the maximum by 2050. In 2020, the tentative value of all provinces and cities is the same, and the value of the policy strength coefficient is 0.05. From 2025 to 2050, the policy strength coefficient of each province takes Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shandong and other provinces and cities with high sensitivity to policies and fast response speed. Its value is the first gradient, and other provinces and cities are the second gradient. Therefore, the overall value of w4 is shown in Table 3.

According to the prediction model and the value of each coefficient, the prediction is shown in Table 4-Table 6:

　4. Industry development strategy research
　　
In recent years, as an emerging photovoltaic application scenario, building integrated photovoltaic has received more and more attention worldwide. In the construction industry and photovoltaic industry, more and more companies are also engaged in building integrated photovoltaic business layout. However, the growth of emerging things will always be accompanied by a series of problems, and the same is true for building integrated photovoltaic. At present, the problems of photovoltaic building integration projects in China can be summarized as follows: policy impact, development route, industry standards and the integration of photovoltaic and construction industries. In order to promote the large-scale and high-level application of renewable energy in the construction field and promote the rapid and healthy development of China's photovoltaic building integration industry, we can consider the following aspects to rapidly promote the development of the industry:
　　
(1) Policy level: Encourage building planning and design to give priority to photovoltaic materials in meeting building functions and safety conditions. You can refer to the incentive policies of the green building industry to give developers motivation through preferential measures such as floor area ratio, unlimited purchase, and unlimited price.
　　
(2) Standard level: Promote the improvement of the national standard system for photovoltaic building integration, so that new photovoltaic building integration projects can successfully pass the building acceptance.
　　
(3) Economic level: appropriate special investment subsidies will be given to the form of photovoltaic building integration, and a one-time investment subsidy will be given according to the installation area after the state acceptance of new or renovated buildings using photovoltaic building integration products that meet national standards. The adoption of building integrated photovoltaic technology is indirectly encouraged through subsidies for ultra-low energy consumption, near (net) zero energy consumption buildings.
　　
(4) Other levels: the formulation of mandatory promotion measures, requiring a certain proportion of new building planning in the area, mandatory use of photovoltaic integrated products, or mandatory new building energy consumption must achieve a certain proportion of energy self-sufficiency.
　　
　　5. Conclusion
　　
(1) At present, China's photovoltaic power stations are mainly ground power stations, accounting for 70% of the total installed capacity, mainly distributed in Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other northwest regions rich in solar energy resources, while China's distributed photovoltaic power generation is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other economically developed, energy-intensive Middle East.
　　
(2) With the adjustment of my country's photovoltaic development strategy and the increasing abandonment of light in the northwest region, the construction of large-scale ground power stations will be affected, and the share of distributed photovoltaics will be increased, especially in economically developed areas. The main form of utilization.
　　
(3) As the country vigorously promotes the photovoltaic building integration industry and introduces relevant supporting policies, the photovoltaic building integration industry will usher in rapid development. By 2025, the installed capacity of the national photovoltaic building integration system is estimated to reach 35GW. Calculated at 3 yuan per watt, the predictable market size of the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 100 billion yuan.

Author: Luo duo, Zeng Zerong, Li Jinlao, Cai Feng, Yu Guobao

Source: 2020-2021 Analysis Report

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